Zero Carbon Emissions in Buildings: A Systems Thinking Modeling Approach

Abstract

Empirical evidence suggests that many variables affect energy use and carbon emissions in buildings. The variables interrelate in a sophisticated manner and constitute a socio-technical problem. While previous observations about the interrelationships among the factors stem from building physics and numerical simulations, gaps exist in the articulation of the socio-technical issues. This article argues for a paradigm shift in the modeling approach through the development of a systems thinking model (STM) for evaluating carbon emissions in buildings. The methodology for this research involved using the literature and knowledge elicitation of stakeholders in the housing sector to build the initial systems thinking model (iSTM), especially where the relationships could not be established empirically. The final systems thinking model (fSTM) was developed by subjecting the iSTM to experts’ review based on a focus group approach by way of knowledge elicitation of the experts. The findings indicate a population of causal variables influencing carbon emissions in dwellings and show the complexity involved among the variables. The study concludes that the approach used in building the model has the capability of improving the accuracy and credibility of the developed STM for evaluating carbon emissions for zero carbon homes.