Iyengar-Sudarshan Method Application to Drought Social Vulnerability: Free State Province, South Africa

Abstract

Free State province is one of the few provinces that was declared drought disaster-struck in 2015. This province is said to be the bread-basket of South Africa therefore protecting it and its human capital is crucial. Social vulnerability to drought was assessed in this study using Iyengar-Sudarshan method. The objective of the study was to; determine municipalities that are socially prone to drought disaster impacts and help with resource mobilisation and allocation in drought relief programmes. Indicators were drawn from Census (2011) data available online. The study appliedIyengar-Sudarshan method in vulnerability computation and munipalities grouped by statistical K-means clustering. The results showed major municipalities in the province less vulnerable compared to the rest of other municipalities. The results concur with reality where Mangaung, Metsimaholo and Matjhabeng are some of the largest municipalities in the province. However, about 80% of the municipalities in this province are prone to devastating effects of climate change variability. This implies that an attention should be given to areas with high population such a Maluti a Phofung which harbours the highest number of agricultural households in the province and all other areas in accordance with vulnerability levels.